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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model