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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model