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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model