4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model