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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 59

Houston Texans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to SEA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 32 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model