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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Monday 2025-10-20 · 22:00 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
42.9%
SEA
57.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.118 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.017 EPA/dropback
  • HOU on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • HOU defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 24
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Christian Kirk WR Out Hamstring
Alijah Huzzie CB Out Knee
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee
Jaylen Reed S Questionable Knee

SEA

Derick Hall LB Out Oblique
Julian Love S Questionable Hamstring
Josh Jones T Questionable Ankle
Devon Witherspoon CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 19
–
SEA 27

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 TD SEA (7:37) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 00:02 TD SEA (:02) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [72-T.Togiai]. PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 0 – SEA 13
  • Q2 02:22 FG HOU (2:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – SEA 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 6 – SEA 14
  • Q3 10:37 FG SEA (10:37) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. HOU 6 – SEA 17
  • Q3 07:33 TD HOU (7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – SEA 17
  • Q3 05:19 FG SEA (5:19) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. HOU 12 – SEA 20
  • Q3 00:57 TD SEA (:57) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – SEA 26
  • Q4 02:15 TD HOU (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 18 – SEA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to HOU 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-38-B.Russell.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 61%

    (3:01) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to HOU 37 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 51-W.Anderson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to SEA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 32 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to HOU 24 for 8 yards (38-B.Russell).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:19) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to SEA 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 43 for 15 yards (88-H.Bryant).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (2:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%

    (:23) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (12:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at HOU 11 for 18 yards.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (10:37) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%

    (8:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to SEA 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (5:19) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:15) (No Huddle) 27-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 39 for -2 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to SEA 40, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 47 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 35%

    (13:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to HOU 11, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios pushed ob at HOU 21 for 10 yards (38-B.Russell).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to SEA 22, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 36 for 14 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 39-H.To'oTo'o).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%

    (9:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 27-W.Marks (42-D.Thomas) [99-L.Williams].

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (6:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel pushed ob at SEA 3 for 21 yards (8-C.Bryant).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Higgins.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 99 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to HOU 43, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to 50 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett).