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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 17

Houston Texans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model