4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at HOU 11 for 18 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model