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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP