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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 42

Houston Texans 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to SEA 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP