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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 88

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to SEA 40, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 47 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model