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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 79

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to SEA 22, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 36 for 14 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 39-H.To'oTo'o).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model