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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 24

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel pushed ob at SEA 3 for 21 yards (8-C.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model