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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:01) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to HOU 37 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 51-W.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model