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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(13:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model