Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LAC offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
IND
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:42 TD IND (12:42) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – LAC 0
- Q1 07:39 FG LAC (7:39) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. IND 6 – LAC 3
- Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – LAC 3
- Q2 09:00 TD IND (9:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – LAC 3
- Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 12-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 23 – LAC 3
- Q3 13:05 TD LAC (13:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – LAC 9
- Q3 12:08 TD IND (12:08) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 29 – LAC 10
- Q3 06:18 TD LAC (6:18) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 31 – LAC 16
- Q3 03:37 TD IND (3:37) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 37 – LAC 17
- Q4 13:46 TD LAC (13:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 38 – LAC 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%
(7:39) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(5:26) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 40 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell).
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 93%
(1:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to LAC 12 for 7 yards (3-D.James).
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Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%
(13:38) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Davis to LAC 20 for -3 yards (38-C.Lammons).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(13:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 64%
(12:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 75Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 43%
(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-T.Harris to LAC 34 for 9 yards (35-J.Edwards; 23-K.Moore).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 39 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%
(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to IND 28 for 11 yards (38-C.Lammons). LAC-73-M.Becton was injured during the play.