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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP