Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 38

(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-T.Harris to LAC 34 for 9 yards (35-J.Edwards; 23-K.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.52 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP