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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 38

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to IND 28 for 11 yards (38-C.Lammons). LAC-73-M.Becton was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.16 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model