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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 19
Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(1:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to LAC 12 for 7 yards (3-D.James).
The Three Options
GO
+2.82 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.15 EP
KICK
+0.92 EP
- 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
