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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model