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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NE
69.0%
TEN
31.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.276 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.155 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
TEN 16
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Chest
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Ankle
Jaylinn Hawkins S Questionable Hamstring
Charles Woods CB Questionable Knee

TEN

Arden Key LB Out Quadricep
Calvin Ridley WR Out Hamstring
Blake Hance G Out Shoulder
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Dre'Mont Jones LB Questionable Knee
T'Vondre Sweat DT Questionable Ankle
Marcus Harris CB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 31
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:24 FG TEN (12:24) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NE 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 06:50 FG NE (6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – TEN 3
  • Q1 05:11 TD TEN (5:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 17-C.Dike for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – TEN 9
  • Q2 05:38 TD NE (5:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – TEN 10
  • Q2 01:53 FG TEN (1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NE 10 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:55 TD NE (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – TEN 13
  • Q3 07:34 TD NE (7:34) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – TEN 13
  • Q3 07:25 TD NE (7:25) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 10 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-44-K.Chaisson at TEN 4. 44-K.Chaisson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-17-C.Dike, Offensive Holding, declined. NE 30 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 72%

    (12:24) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 26 for 15 yards (91-E.Ponder).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

    (12:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to TEN 4 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:27) 3-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NE 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:07) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (8:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (5:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to NE 35 for 11 yards (15-M.Mapu).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to TEN 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 62%

    (2:00) 26-T.Jennings up the middle to TEN 32 for 3 yards (93-T.Sweat; 53-J.Ward).