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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model