Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 74

New England Patriots 31 – Tennessee Titans 13

(3:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model