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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model