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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 59

New England Patriots 31 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to TEN 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model