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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 54

New England Patriots 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 26 for 15 yards (91-E.Ponder).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model