Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 23

(10:50) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to CHI 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model