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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
36.2%
CHI
63.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Spencer Rattler (NO): -0.153 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

John Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Isaac Yiadom CB Questionable Hamstring

CHI

Cairo Santos K Out Thigh
Noah Sewell LB Out Concussion
Grady Jarrett DT Questionable Knee
Travis Homer RB Questionable Calf
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Knee
Austin Booker DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 14
–
CHI 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 FG CHI (9:38) 16-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NO 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 14:10 FG CHI (14:10) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NO 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 09:10 TD CHI (9:10) 4-D.Swift right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CHI 12
  • Q2 02:53 TD CHI (2:53) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CHI 19
  • Q2 00:27 TD NO (:27) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CHI 20
  • Q3 09:47 TD NO (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CHI 20
  • Q3 04:10 FG CHI (4:10) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NO 14 – CHI 23
  • Q4 06:26 FG CHI (6:26) 16-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NO 14 – CHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:43) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (9:38) 16-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:11) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 8 yards (49-Z.Wood).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%

    (3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (14:10) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 50%

    (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to CHI 43 for -1 yards (98-M.Sweat, 49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (1:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to NO 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:10) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to NO 21, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:50) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to CHI 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (6:26) 16-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 85%

    (4:29) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle intended for 88-J.Stoll INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CHI 22. 49-T.Edmunds to CHI 32 for 10 yards (41-A.Kamara).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NO 18 for 8 yards (21-J.Reid).