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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 26

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle intended for 88-J.Stoll INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CHI 22. 49-T.Edmunds to CHI 32 for 10 yards (41-A.Kamara).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model