Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(8:11) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 8 yards (49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.83 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model