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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model