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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYG 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 10 yards (26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model