NYG @ DEN — 4th & Data

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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll

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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton

Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYG

29.2%

DEN

70.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DEN defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.111 vs Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.101 EPA/dropback
DEN offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
NYG defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
NYG on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19

–

DEN 26

Projected margin: DEN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYG

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Hamstring

John Michael Schmitz C Out Concussion

Swayze Bozeman LB Out Ankle

Darius Slayton WR Doubtful Hamstring

Chauncey Golston DE Doubtful Neck

Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Pectoral

Abdul Carter LB Questionable Hamstring

DEN

Jonah Elliss LB Out Shoulder

Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 32

–

DEN 33

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:03 TD NYG (7:03) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 82-D.Bellinger for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DEN 0
Q2 08:54 TD NYG (8:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 44-C.Skattebo for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DEN 0
Q3 02:47 TD NYG (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DEN 0
Q4 14:14 TD DEN (14:14) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DEN 6
Q4 10:22 TD NYG (10:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 25 – DEN 8
Q4 05:19 TD DEN (5:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – DEN 14
Q4 03:55 TD DEN (3:55) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – DEN 22
Q4 01:56 TD DEN (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – DEN 29
Q4 00:40 TD NYG (:40) (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 6-J.Dart up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 49-A.Singleton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 6-J.Dart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 32 – DEN 30
Q4 00:02 FG DEN (:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. NYG 32 – DEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

(12:53) 12-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(12:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to NYG 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 60%

(11:16) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 64

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 63%

(8:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYG 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 10 yards (26-D.Key).
Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 17 yards (86-T.Fidone).
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(14:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYG 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 18 for 5 yards (26-D.Key; 46-A.Prentice).
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

(10:59) 6-J.Dart left guard to DEN 12 for 1 yard (15-N.Bonitto; 49-A.Singleton). (Virtual Measurement).
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%

(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to NYG 39 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton).
Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 1 for 1 yard (24-D.Belton).
Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DEN 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 47%

(12:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to NYG 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 55%

(7:08) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 61 yards to NYG 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 41 for 13 yards (34-J.Skinner).
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 70 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(2:51) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 32 for 12 yards (47-N.Hewitt).
Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 74 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.05 EP

p(convert) 26%

(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.