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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 64

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYG 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 18 for 5 yards (26-D.Key; 46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.18 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model