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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 13

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 6-J.Dart left guard to DEN 12 for 1 yard (15-N.Bonitto; 49-A.Singleton). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model