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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 42

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to NYG 39 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model