4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 1 for 1 yard (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model