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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 58

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to NYG 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP