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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 89

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 61 yards to NYG 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 41 for 13 yards (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model