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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 70

New York Giants 26 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 32 for 12 yards (47-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model