Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 74

New York Giants 26 – Denver Broncos 30

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.05 EP