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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 64

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP