4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model