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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Thursday 2025-10-16 · 20:15 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
58.3%
CIN
41.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (CIN): -0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 25
–
CIN 20
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PIT

Miles Killebrew S Out Knee
Calvin Austin III WR Out Shoulder
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Knee

CIN

Tanner Hudson TE Out Concussion
Mike Gesicki TE Out Pectoral
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Calf
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Hip
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 31
–
CIN 33

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:00 TD PIT (11:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-D.Knight]. PIT 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 10:31 FG PIT (10:31) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 10 – CIN 0
  • Q2 04:42 TD CIN (4:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. PIT 10 – CIN 6
  • Q2 02:58 TD CIN (2:58) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG CIN (:02) 2-E.McPherson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PIT 10 – CIN 17
  • Q3 07:58 FG CIN (7:58) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PIT 10 – CIN 20
  • Q3 03:59 TD PIT (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – CIN 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 86-N.Fant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – CIN 26
  • Q4 11:07 TD PIT (11:07) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – CIN 27
  • Q4 07:03 FG CIN (7:03) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PIT 24 – CIN 30
  • Q4 02:31 TD PIT (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 30 – CIN 30
  • Q4 00:11 FG CIN (:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PIT 31 – CIN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (7:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams to PIT 26 for 10 yards (26-T.Anderson; 89-D.Sample).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:06) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (2:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 85-K.Williams. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 12.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (10:31) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (9:30) 16-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 7 for 2 yards (99-D.Harmon; 55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:58) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (7:03) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:26) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 17 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 42 for 17 yards (55-L.Wilson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.