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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model