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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 30

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model