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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 30 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model