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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams to PIT 26 for 10 yards (26-T.Anderson; 89-D.Sample).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model