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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.33 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP